As Oscar bellwethers go, the Producers Guild is arguably the best of the bunch with its winners matching Oscar in 22 of the last 32 years.
The PGA noms are a likely preview of what the Academy’s best picture noms will be 2/8, although there usually are a few differences. Because the PGA uses Oscar’s own Byzantine preferential voting system, the producers tend to preview Academy members’ choices. The convoluted system has voters list 10 pictures in the order of preference — and to avoid getting deep into the weeds here, let’s just say it’s better to be liked by everybody than loved by a passionate few.
Five of the PGA’s 10 noms also received DGA nods. Since the DGA gives 5 theatrical feature noms and the PGA lists 10, there’s always a mix of “haves” & “have nots.” Having noms from both guilds doesn’t guarantee anything, but those who get into both races are generally thought to have a better shot in the equivalent Oscar races. This year’s “haves” is Kenneth Branagh’s BELFAST; Denis Villeneuve’s DUNE (pictured with Javier Bardem); Paul Thomas Anderson’s LICORICE PIZZA; Jane Campion’s THE POWER OF THE DOG; & Steven Spielberg’s WEST SIDE STORY.