There are very good reasons why all of Oscar’s 8 Best Picture noms could lose.
Here’s a quick look at who’s dealing with what problems:
- THE FATHER: 6 noms, but no Directing (Florian Zeller). It has Adapted Screenplay & Film Editing, the other 2 noms that are traditionally considered essential to winning. Helpful: Nods for best actor (Anthony Hopkins) & supporting actress (Olivia Colman – SAG nom). Diversity: No.
- JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH: 6 noms, but no Directing (Shaka King) or Editing. It does have an Original Screenplay nom. No lead acting noms, but Daniel Kaluuya has a Supporting Actor nom (with SAG nom & GG + Critics Choice wins). Diversity: Major advantage.
- MANK: Leads the pack with 10 noms, including Directing (David Fincher), but no Original Screenplay or Editing. Best buzz: Noms for lead actor (Gary Oldman – SAG nom) & supporting actress (Amanda Seyfried). Diversity: No.
- MINARI: 6 noms, including Directing & Original Screenplay (Lee Isaac Chung), but no Editing. Helpful: Lead actor (Steven Yeun – SAG nom) & Supporting Actress (Yuh-Jung Youn – SAG nom). Diversity: Major advantage. Doesn’t help: PARASITE won for 2020.
Similar problems also confront these 4 Best Picture noms:
- NOMADLAND: 6 noms, including all 3 key add-ons: Directing (Chloe Zhao), Adapted Screenplay & Editing. Frances McDormand has lead actress nom (+SAG nom, but no GG & CC wins). It’s a frontrunner with GG & CC best picture wins, but Academy members might resist rubber-stamping those votes – especially with GG under fire for no diversity. Diversity: Asian/Female Director.
- PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN: 5 noms, including big 3: Directing (Emerald Fennell), Original Screenplay & Editing. Carey Mulligan has lead actress nom (+SAG nom & CC win). Diversity: White/Female Director.
- SOUND OF METAL: 6 noms, including Original Screenplay & Editing, but no Directing (Darius Marder). Riz Ahmed has lead actor nom (+SAG nom). Paul Raci has supporting nod. Diversity: Ahmed is British Pakistani.
- THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7: 6 noms, including Editing & Original Screenplay (Aaron Sorkin) – but no Directing (Sorkin). Sacha Baron Cohen has supporting actor nod (+SAG nom). Diversity: No. Very relevant American political storyline may not resonate as well with Academy’s expanded international membership.