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Thursday, May 19, 2022

"MULTIVERSE" HOLDING IN TOP ORBIT

THIS WEEKEND WON'T GO INTO RECORD BOOKS AS MARKETPLACE CONTINUES TO SHRINK. DISNEY/MARVEL'S "DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS" WILL LIKELY HOLD ON IN FIRST PLACE ORBIT IN WEEKEND THREE -- BUT WITH SIZABLE DROP FROM LAST WEEK'S $61.8M. 67% SLIDE LIKE IN WEEKEND TWO WOULD GIVE IT $20.4M, PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH TO STAY #1. SOME MEDIA PUNDITS THINK DROP WILL BE LESS -- MORE LIKE 60%, WHICH WOULD GENERATE ABOUT $26M.

FIRST "STRANGE" STRENGTH LESS THAN SEQUEL

LOOKING BACK AT WEEKEND THREE OF ORIGINAL "DOCTOR STRANGE" (11/18-20/16), ITS $17.8M WAS DOWN 59% FROM $43M IN WEEKEND TWO. DOMESTIC CUME THROUGH WEEKEND THREE WAS $181.6M. GOING INTO ITS THIRD WEEKEND, "MULTIVERSE" WAS ALREADY $300M+ DOMESTIC. ORIGINAL'S DOMESTIC TOTAL WAS $232.6M. ROTTEN TOMATOES SCORES FOR ORIGINAL WERE: 89% CRITICS & 85% AUDIENCES.

EXITS SHOW FANS DON'T HATE "MULTIVERSE"

SOME MEDIA ANALYSTS HAVE TAGGED "MULTIVERSE" AS VICTIM OF BAD WORD OF MOUTH & PIN LAST WEEKEND'S PLUNGE ON MARVEL FANS REJECTING SOFT STORYLINE. WHILE THAT'S POSSIBLE, EXIT POLLS DON'T SUPPORT THAT VIEW. SECOND WEEKEND EXITS SHOW TOP TWO BOXES (EXCELLENT & VERY GOOD) AT FIVE POINTS OVER NORM WITH DEFINITE RECOMMEND SCORE SEVEN POINTS OVER NORM. THAT JUST DOESN'T TRANSLATE INTO FANS HATING THE MOVIE. NEITHER DOES 86% AUDIENCE SCORE ON ROTTEN TOMATOES BASED ON 10,000 VERIFIED RATINGS.

SECOND PLACE IS "DOWNTON" DESTINATION

FOCUS FEATURES' OPENING OF PG PERIOD DRAMA "DOWNTON ABBEY: A NEW ERA" WILL LIKELY PLACE SECOND AT ABOUT 3,400 THEATRES WITH $16-18M, PER EXHIBITORS' EXPECTATIONS. SOME HOLLYWOOD HANDICAPPERS ARE HIGHER WITH $15-20M. IF "MULTIVERSE" REALLY GETS CLOBBERED & FALLS 71%, IT WOULD ONLY DO $17.9M. IF "DOWNTON" HITS HIGH END OF ESTIMATES, IT COULD SURPRISE BY TOPPING CHART. CRITICS WILL HELP AS THEY'RE ALREADY ENCOURAGING 81% ON ROTTEN TOMATOES. RT AUDIENCE SCORE IS FABULOUS 98%, INDICATING FAVORABLE WORD OF MOUTH.

"DOWNTON" NOT TRACKING ROYALLY

"DOWNTON" TRACKING, HOWEVER, DOESN'T SUGGEST GREAT PLAYABILITY. LOOKING AT FIRST CHOICE DEMOS, ITS APPEAL IS ONLY TO WOMEN. BUT -25F ARE SCORING JUST EQUAL TO NORM & +25F ARE ONE POINT UNDER NORM. MEN DEFINITELY AREN'T RUSHING TO BUY TICKETS. -25M ARE FIVE POINTS UNDER NORM & +25M ARE ALSO FIVE POINTS UNDER NORM. FIRST "DOWNTON" FEATURE OPENED 9/20/19 TO $31M. WOUND UP WITH $96.9M/DOM + $95.3M/INT = $192.2M/WW.

ALL "MEN" DEMOS UNDER NORM

WEEKEND'S ONLY OTHER WIDE LAUNCH IS A24/DNA FILMS' R RATED HORROR THRILLER "MEN." EXHIBS ARE PROJECTING JUST $3-4M WHILE MEDIA IS ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER WITH $3-5M. FIRST CHOICE SCORES SUPPORT THOSE LOW ESTIMATES. ALL DEMOS ARE BELOW NORM. BEST DEMO: -25M (TWO POINTS UNDER NORM). CRITICS ARE 78% ON RT, NOT ENOUGH TO BOOST IT.