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Thursday, December 1 2022

"WAKANDA" NOT FOREVER, BUT STILL #1

EXHIBITORS WON'T HAVE 'WAKANDA" FOREVER, BUT THEY'RE DEFINITELY HAPPY TO HAVE IT THIS WEEKEND. HOLLYWOOD HANDICAPPERS EXPECT DISNEY/MARVEL'S "BLACK PANTHER 2: WAKANDA FOREVER" TO EASILY HOLD ON TO FIRST PLACE FOR FOURTH STRAIGHT WEEKEND. MEDIA GUESSTIMATES PUT IT MOSTLY IN $20-25M RANGE. IT'S ALREADY DONE OVER $372M DOMESTIC.

"VIOLENT" WEEKEND AT BOXOFFICE

TRACKING POINTS TO GOOD "VIOLENT NIGHT" ACTION AT POST-THANKSGIVING WEEKEND BOXOFFICE. R RATED ACTION CRIME COMEDY FROM UNIVERSAL WILL TEAM UP WITH "WAKANDA" TO TAKE CHILL OUT OF MULTIPLEX AIR. AVERAGE FIRST CHOICE IS NOW TWO POINTS OVER NORM (UP FROM ONLY ONE POINT OVER NORM EARLIER IN WEEK). TOP DEMO IS -25F, WHO ARE FIVE POINTS OVER NORM (UNCHANGED). ALL OTHER DEMOS ARE TIED AND SCORING ONE OR TWO POINTS OVER NORM. CRITICS ARE HATING IT AT 64% ON ROTTEN TOMATOES. EXHIBITORS ARE PROJECTING $9-12M AT ABOUT 3,500 THEATRES. ANALYSTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH $10-12M, BUT THERE'S ALSO BUZZ THAT "VIOLENT" COULD OVERPERFORM.

"AVATAR 2" WAY TO GO!

DECEMBER WILL MOVE INTO HIGH BOXOFFICE GEAR 12/16 WITH ARRIVAL OF DISNEY/20TH'S PG-13 ACTION ADVENTURE FANTASY "AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER" FROM JAMES CAMERON. AVERAGE FIRST CHOICE IS NOW 19 POINTS OVER NORM (WAS 18 POINTS OVER NORM EARLIER IN WEEK). TOP DEMO: +25M (22 POINTS OVER NORM). NEXT BEST: -25M (19 POINTS OVER NORM). -25F ARE 18 POINTS OVER NORM. +25F ARE 17 POINTS OVER NORM. IT'S A FOUR QUADRANTS MOVIE THAT SHOULD BRIGHTEN DECEMBER BOXOFFICE SKIES. EARLY GUESSTIMATES ARE FOR $150-175 DOMESTIC OPENING, BUT MEDIA PUNDITS ARE LOOKING AT TRACKING AND STARTING TO THINK ABOUT $175-200M.

'M3GAN" PERFECT FOR -25F

UNIVERSAL/BLUMHOUSE'S PG-13 SCI-FI HORROR THRILLER "M3GAN" SHOULD START HEATING UP BOXOFFICE 1/6. STORYLINE IS PERFECT FOR -25F, CORE AUDIENCE FOR MOST HORROR FILMS: TOY COMPANY ROBOTICS ENGINEER CREATES LIFE-LIKE FEMALE DOLL WHO THEN GETS A LIFE OF HER OWN. DIRECTED BY GERARD JOHNSTONE ("HOUSEBOUND"), IT STARS ALLISON WILLIAMS ("GET OUT") & JENNA DAVIS AS VOICE OF M3GAN.

"PARTY," "PLANE," "OTTO" FOR MLK WEEKEND

MARTIN LUTHER KING DAY IS 1/16, MAKING FOR FOUR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND STARTING 1/13. WB/NL'S R RATED COMEDY "HOUSE PARTY" WILL BE DESTINATION FOR 18-34 CROWD. DIRECTED BY FIRST TIME FEATURE DIRECTOR CALMATIC WILL, IT STARS TOSIN COLE & JACOB LATIMORE. IT'S REMAKE OF 1990 "HOUSE PARTY" THAT REPORTEDLY COST $2.5M TO PRODUCE & DID $26.4M DOMESTIC... SONY/PLAYTONE/STX'S ADULT TARGETED PG-13 DRAMEDY "A MAN CALLED OTTO" IS DIRECTED BY MARC FOSTER ("WORLD WAR Z") & STARS TOM HANKS...LIONSGATE'S ACTION THRILLER "PLANE" IS DIRECTED BY JEAN-FRANCOIS RICHET, CÉSAR WINNER FOR 2008'S "MESRINE: KILLER INSTINCT," & STARS GERARD BUTLER. STORYLINE: COMMERCIAL FLIGHT FORCED BY FIERCE STORM TO LAND IN WAR ZONE.

"MISSING," "DISTANT" LATER IN JANUARY

SONY/SCREEN GEMS DESCRIBES PG-13 THRILLER "MISSING,"OPENING 1/20, AS "ROLLER-COASTER MYSTERY THAT MAKES YOU WONDER HOW WELL YOU KNOW THOSE CLOSEST TO YOU." DIRECTED BY FIRST-TIME FEATURE DIRECTOR NICHOLAS JOHNSON IT STARS NIA LONG & STORM REID...UNIVERSAL/AMBLIN'S PG-13 SCI-FI DRAMEDY "DISTANT," OPENING 1/27, IS DIRECTED BY JOSH GORDON & WILL SPECK, WHO TEAMED UP FOR 2016'S "OFFICE CHRISTMAS PARTY." STARRING ARE ANTHONY RAMOS & NAOMI SCOTT. STORYLINE: ASTEROID MINER TRIES TO SURVIVE AFTER FORCED LANDING ON DISTANT PLANET.