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      • CITIZEN KANE Premieres in NY 5/1/1941
      • Weekend Results... 4/29-5/1
      • It Took Just 4 Days in Vegas to Make Movie Theaters Look Cool Again
      • A Scrappier Model for Netflix Might Be More Sustainable
      • After streaming’s worst week, Hollywood bows at the altar of cinema
      • ACE Is Wild Over Academy Downgrade
      • Twists & Turns Ahead for Streaming
      • Studio Releases... 5/6-5/12
      • Studio Releases... 5/13-5/19

      CITIZEN KANE Premieres in NY 5/1/1941

      play
      Orson Welles arrives at the RKO Palace in Times Square for CITIZEN KANE’s 1941 New York & World Premiere

      Even after 81 years, it’s still amazing that CITIZEN KANE, which premiered in New York on May 1, 1941, managed to get shown in movie theatres.

      The problem was that Orson Welles’ story of newspaper mogul/politician Charles Foster Kane was modeled — in very large part, some said — after real-life newspaper mogul/politician William Randolph Hearst. Concerns over how closely the RKO film, written by Herman J. Mankiewicz & Welles, depicted Hearst and his longtime mistress, movie star Marion Davies, resulted in strenuous efforts to keep KANE out of cinemas.

      The lengths to which MGM, in particular, went to kill KANE, are themselves a good thriller. As Welles was shooting in 1940, word spread that Kane was Hearst and no-talent singer/actress Susan Alexander Kane was the very talented & successful actress Davies. Welles told RKO president George Schaefer that Kane was a composite character & Alexander definitely wasn’t Davies, but Schaefer sensed serious trouble ahead. Hearst was the day’s most powerful media mogul with newspapers, magazines, a newsreel, a wire service & radio stations — clearly, a formidable enemy.

      A possible way out came in a call to Schaefer, prior to KANE’s release, from Nicholas Schenck, chairman of Loew’s, Inc., the NY theatre chain that owned MGM. Schenck asked Schaefer to see him in NY, which he did since that was, in effect, a command. MGM president Louis B. Mayer was a longtime friend of Hearst, whose Cosmopolitan Pictures was based for years at MGM. Face to face, Schenck revealed Mayer would repay RKO the $800,000 it spent to produce KANE if Schaefer would have KANE’s negative & all its prints destroyed.

      That put Schaefer in a decidedly difficult spot. He’d crossed swords before with Mayer and wasn’t going to give in to him now. Schaefer felt RKO’s board would say take the money, so he didn’t put this in front of them. He greenlighted KANE’s release, himself, after running it past RKO lawyers who, reportedly, altered only one line. But he couldn’t get the film played anywhere but in RKO’s own small theatre circuit.

      NY’s Radio City Music Hall, which like RKO was backed by Rockefeller money & the Chase Bank, wouldn’t play the critically acclaimed movie because Hearst’s Hollywood columnist, Louella Parsons, said it shouldn’t be shown. Schaefer finally pressured the big Warner Bros. theatre circuit to book KANE, threatening a lawsuit for conspiracy with MGM if it refused. Once WB agreed to play it, KANE was on the road to its now-legendary success.

      “I don’t think any word can explain a man’s life” – Orson Welles as Charles Foster Kane

      Box Office Results

      Weekend Results... 4/29-5/1

      This weekend is a textbook example of major studios running away from head-to-head competition with a blockbuster, so as to avoid having to survive on the crumbs that it left behind.  In days past, this would only happen on the opening weekend of the tentpole, but now it seems that this has expanded to include the week before and after as well.  With Disney/Marvel’s DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS opening next Friday, there were no significant new openings this weekend, leading to quiet results.

      Open Road/Briarcliff saw this as an opportunity to release MEMORY, the latest action thriller starring Liam Neeson.  Alas, the results were less thrilling, generating only $3M, good enough for eighth place on the weekend box office charts.  Part of the problem may have been the film itself.  Liam Neeson’s box office appeal appears to be trending down after a run of less-than-stellar performers including BLACKLIGHT ($10M), THE MARSKMAN ($16M) and HONEST THIEF ($14M). After this soft opening, MEMORY may struggle to earn $6M for its entire theatrical run.  Is MEMORY’S poor return due to the film being just another flop or because DOCTOR STRANGE’s opening in only a matter of days?  It seems likely that both factors played a role, and that studio execs will persist in their approach of avoiding major title releases.

      Performance from holdover titles appear to have benefited from the lack of new competition because of next week’s looming blockbuster opening.  THE BAD GUYS, SONIC THE HEDGEHOG 2 and FANTASTIC BEASTS all dropped less than would normally have been expected, at 33% , 28%  and 41% respectively.  This weekend’s total gross for all pictures in release will finish at approximately $68M, the lowest for the past 13 weeks.  The timing could not have been worse, when measuring current results to those from 2019.  AVENGERS: ENDGAME opened on 4/26/2019, pulling in an astounding $357M over three days, and leading the overall weekend results that year to $400.  After enjoying three weeks in a row of high 80% comparisons to 2019, the score for 4/29/2022 – 5/1/2022 was only 17% compared to 4/26/2019 – 4/28/2019.

      RankTitle (Distributor)Week# TheatresWeekend $ Per Theatre Average $Total $
      1The Bad Guys (Universal Pictures)24,042$16,237,070$4,017$40,187,315
      2Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (Paramount Pictures)43,801$11,539,162$3,036$128,602,852
      3Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (Warner Bros.)33,962$8,307,585$2,097$64,461,031
      4The Northman (Focus Features)23,284$6,367,130$1,939$18,657,930
      5Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)62,213$5,542,515$2,505$25,726,576
      See More Details

      It Took Just 4 Days in Vegas to Make Movie Theaters Look Cool Again (IndieWire)

      Exhibitors, studios, and Hollywood stars teamed up to deliver a unified message at last week’s CinemaCon conference: the biggest films are back on the big screen.

      In his state of the union speech, NATO President & CEO John Fithian declared that the experiment with day & date release has ended.  At key moments during the pandemic, studios decided to shift major titles to streaming, in some cases releasing films to theatres and streaming simultaneously and in others bypassing theatres entirely.

      Movies such as BLACK WIDOW, DUNE, SPACE JAM: A NEW LEGACY, PAW PATROL: THE MOVIE had originally been developed with plans to become major theatrical releases.  However, while the pandemic was limiting moviegoing, studios justified the change of plans by saying that they were giving audiences choices.  They were also pushing hard to lure new subscribers to the in-house streaming services.

      Fithian pointed out that day & date releasing also resulted in a dramatic increase in piracy because it serves up pristine versions of major new releases to the bootleggers. This undercuts the studios’ interests since these increases in piracy wind up decreasing revenues from the box office and streaming subscriptions.  Fithian went further to connect the outcomes from day & date releasing to “illegal activities like gambling, money laundering, tax evasion, drugs, grand theft auto, and prostitution.”

      At the conference, studios including Paramount, Warner Bros, Universal, and Disney all committed to supporting an exclusive theatrical window for the most widely anticipated summer movies which include TOP GUN: MAVERICK, BULLET TRAIN, ELVIS, LIGHTYEAR, and NOPE.  Unlike last year’s CinemaCon in August which was still heavily marked by the pandemic, attendees at this year’s conference remarked on how “normal” the event felt, and expressed optimism over the upcoming summer slate of films.

      A Scrappier Model for Netflix Might Be More Sustainable (New York Times)

      CinemaCon’s celebration of the exhibition came on the heels of a reckoning in the world of streaming.  Last week began with an embarrassing collapse of CNN+, which Warner Bros. Discovery shut down only one month after its debut.  The downfall of CNN+ was particularly embarrassing after the company invested $300M to develop and launch the service.

      Bad news for streamers continued to roll in, after Netflix’s surprise announcement that its U.S. subscriber count had dropped in Q1, with a projection of even steeper declines in Q2.  Wall Street’s takeaway appears to be that the growth in streaming has stalled and that major players will now need to adapt by finding new models in order to return to growth.

      The most widely-discussed directions that Netflix could pursue to increase revenues are to (1) introduce a free or low-cost service that is supported by ads, (2) crackdown on widespread password-sharing, and (3) partner with exhibitors to kick off the release of Netflix’s top tier of feature movies in theatres.

      Another interesting angle was offered this week by Jason Blum, founder of the production company Blumhouse.  In an op-ed article published by New York Times, Blum suggests that Netflix should strike talent agreements that guarantee actors and directors less money upfront, but a higher percentage of the income earned from successful release.

      This approach would reduce Netflix’s up-front production costs, perhaps substantially, and increase incentives to create content with audience appeal.  Up to this point, Netflix has held its performance data closely.  But with the streaming giant in a weakened position, any model that has the potential to reduce costs and increase the marketability of its content should be considered.

      After streaming’s worst week, Hollywood bows at the altar of cinema (Los Angeles Times)

      Michelle Yeoh stars in the A24 action-adventure-fantasy EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

      This week’s split-screen between exhibitors celebrating at their annual CinemaCon conference in Las Vegas and Netflix squirming under the bright lights of a tough quarterly report has dispelled the notion that streaming has eclipsed theatres as the engine of growth for the movie business.

      In a timely piece, Los Angeles Times columnist Ryan Faughnder looks at the recent series of successes for exhibition.  From blockbusters SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME and THE BATMAN, family films including SONIC THE HEDGEHOG 2 and THE BAD GUYS, horror flicks SCREAM and A QUIET PLACE PART 2, and even romantic comedies such as THE LOST CITY have proven the enduring appeal of a traditional theatrical release.

      He goes on to highlight the breakout success of the indie release EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE, which has grossed over $35M in an expanding release that began in March.  Some have claimed that an original, independent film could no longer be successful in theatres, having any recognizable star and not being connected to an existing franchise or having established characters.  In fact, the success of EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE would not have been possible without the buzz created by a theatrical run.

      On the one hand, it is true that fewer films are going to theatres and the exclusive window for theatres has been compressed.  On the other hand, it’s becoming abundantly clear that day & date releasing does not work well for big studio titles and that Hollywood’s infatuation with streaming has suddenly come up against its own set of challenges.  The past few weeks have demonstrated that the exhibition maintains an enduring role in the industry, with a unique financial and cultural impact.

      ACE Is Wild Over Academy Downgrade

      Will Smith did the Academy a big favor by diverting media attention from its downgrade of 8 Oscar categories, but the offending branches haven’t forgotten about it.

      This week brought more fallout as the American Cinema Editors (ACE) voiced objections to being bumped to the pre-telecast hour. In a stinging video statement urging the Academy to abandon its new two-tier awards strategy, ACE protested, “This year’s Academy Awards ceremony left film editors and many other essential arts on the cutting room floor of cinematic history. We feel cheated, insulted, and angry by the way our art was deemed superfluous, in favor of bloated performances and spectacle.”

      Ironically, for many years a film editing nom was seen as a key way to handicap the best picture race. Not having an editing nom was considered a big disadvantage. It’s a sign of changing Oscar times that 2022’s best picture winner, CODA, wasn’t a film editing nominee while DUNE, which won for editing, lost for best picture.

      Despite Oscar’s degrading downgrades, the telecast still ran for nearly four hours! So the Academy accomplished nothing with its new pre-show awards strategy — except alienating members, who now are committed to achieving change.

      Twists & Turns Ahead for Streaming

      The topsy-turvy world of streaming is making more headlines than it wants to.

      Netflix was knocked for a loop by Wall Street after losing 200,000 subscribers in Q1 & predicting a 2M subs drop in Q2. Now Netflix is talking about adding new revenue with an ad-supported tier. Media buyers will likely seize the opportunity to reach Netflix’s 222M global subs, including some 75M domestic.

      What doesn’t make sense is Netflix also wants to crack down on password sharing with new fees. That’s a recipe to lose more subs as people fight inflation by shedding the easiest costs to cut. If you want to monetize subscribers, why do anything to lose some?

      Netflix’s $54B in wiped out market capital dwarfs Amazon’s $8.45B acquisition of MGM. Amazon’s not keeping MGM Motion Picture Group chairman Michael De Luca & president Pam Abdy, whose leadership helped make the studio worth that price. Amazon‘s streamers will be taking over. Yes, there’s a great library of IP to turn into series, sequels, reboots & reimaginations, which Amazon values at $3.4B. De Luca & Abdy know how to make the kind of movies people will pay to see in theatres — but, apparently, Amazon doesn’t value that.

      Meanwhile, news streamer CNN+ is dead just 3 weeks post-launch. Clearly, not a vote of confidence in streaming by the new Warner Discovery team.

      Studio Release Calendar

      Studio Releases... 5/6-5/12

      Title (Distributor)RatingRuntimeDistribution
      Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Disney/Marvel)PG-13126Wide
      Happening (IFC Films)R100Limited
      This Much I Know to Be True (Trafalgar Releasing)NREvent Cinema
      ABBA: The Movie – Fan Event (Trafalgar Releasing)NREvent Cinema
      Black Gold (Iconic Releasing)NREvent Cinema
      See More Details

      Studio Release Calendar

      Studio Releases... 5/13-5/19

      Title (Distributor)RatingRuntimeDistribution
      Firestarter (Universal Pictures)RWide
      Montana Story (Bleecker Street Media)R114Limited
      Mau (Greenwich Entertainment)NR77Limited
      Family Camp (Roadside Attractions)PGLimited
      Tankhouse (Vertical Entertainment)RLimited
      See More Details
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