Actors are the Academy’s biggest branch so how they vote for SAG Awards can point to Oscar wins.
It’s less likely with this year’s SAG cast noms, the guild’s equivalent of a best picture race. An Academy match seems slim since 3 of SAG’s 5 noms — DA 5 BLOODS, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM & ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI — didn’t get Oscar picture nods.
MINARI & THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 have Oscar noms, but both face challenges. It doesn’t help MINARI to follow 2020’s SAG & Oscar winner PARASITE (pictured: director Bong Joon Ho) although MINARI, unlike PARASITE, was shot in the U.S. and is mostly in English. And it’s no help to CHICAGO that Aaron Sorkin has no directing nod although ARGO won in 2013 without a nom for Ben Affleck.
The 2 Oscar contenders with the right combination of key noms (Directing, Screenwriting & Film Editing) aren’t in SAG’s cast race – NOMADLAND, which won the PGA vote + picture & director (Chloe Zhao) at the Golden Globes & Critics Choice, and PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN with its big buzz for Carey Mulligan & director Emerald Fennell.
Anything’s possible, but reading SAG’s best cast tea leaves 4/4 might not tell us anything this year.